Several people have asked me if the conflict between Georgia and Russia will affect Ukraine. The following is my opinion after communications with friends in Ukraine.
First some background, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia all border on the Black Sea. Russia has a naval base in Sevastopol, Ukraine, a holdover from the Soviet Union. Russia hasn’t made any secret that it wishes it could have held on to Ukraine especially the Crimean peninsula, long a favorite vacation spot. There are several castles there built as summer homes for Tsars or other leaders. The joke lately is that Russia is repatriating Crimea in pieces by purchasing buildings, apartments, businesses and land throughout the region.
While Russia’s official justification for the conflict in Georgia is their desire to “liberate” South Ossetia, it is generally viewed in the region as an act of aggression. Further, the consensus is that if Russia is successful here, Ukraine could be next.
The bottom line is that Ukraine, and a lot of other former communist bloc countries, are watching this conflict very nervously. They know that success in Georgia will only fuel Russia’s aggression.
Don't grow weary,
Charles
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